"The PGA is headed to Pebble Beach, a course that looks simple on paper but can expose everything. It's short by modern standards but not at all forgiving. Small greens, coastal air and sharp decision-making forces players to play with controlled aggression. Distance helps but it only matters if you can convert chances on the green, meaning tee-to-green sets the table but putting decides how far you can go."
"You'll see that this week I included both "To win" and "To win without Scottie Scheffler." If you opt to sprinkle on the outright market, I prefer the full To win. Removing Scheffler costs you upside, and the players I'm backing need volatility to win anyway. If they get there, it's because they spike with birdies and distance, not because Scottie politely stepped aside. The price difference rarely justifies sacrificing payout."
"Knapp is a high-ceiling, volatility type of player. When his timing clicks, he contends but when it doesn't, accuracy can get exposed. Pebble rewards exactly what he brings: power, birdies and putts. Knapp is an aggressive scorer with legit upside, bogey-free 64 kind of upside. He's top five off the tee and driving distance, while also top 10 in putting, birdie or better, and Poa putting splits. That's a stellar combo to create scoring chances and convert."
Pebble Beach is short by modern standards but offers small greens, coastal air and unforgiving conditions that can expose weaknesses. Controlled aggression and sharp decision-making are required because distance only matters if players convert chances on the green. Tee-to-green play sets up scoring opportunities, but putting ultimately decides how far a player can go. Betting strategies include both "To win" and "To win without Scottie Scheffler," yet removing Scheffler sacrifices upside and payout for little justification. Top-20 wagers provide consistency while focusing on players whose profiles support a win when everything clicks. Jake Knapp exemplifies the high-ceiling, volatility profile suited to Pebble.
Read at ESPN.com
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