Russia's invasion of Ukraine is illegal and brutal, with Moscow bearing responsibility. Ukrainian forces have shown courageous, principled defense, and global support for Ukrainian sovereignty remains moral and necessary. Despite that, the conflict has shifted incrementally in Russia's favor, with continual gains eroding Ukraine's military position. Media portrayals of a stalemate often understate battlefield realities. Putin treats the conflict as existential, opposes Ukrainian NATO membership, and has annexed several regions, signaling limited war aims. Sanctions are unlikely to force a change of course, and absent dramatic intervention, the war is likely to continue through 2025.
OPINION - Russia's invasion of Ukraine is an illegal and brutal war of aggression. Moscow is solely responsible for unleashing this conflict, and the world is right to recoil from the idea of rewarding Vladimir Putin for his crimes. Ukraine's defense has been courageous and principled, and global support for its sovereignty is both moral and necessary. Yet even with this moral clarity, after more than three years of war, it is time to face several painful but unavoidable truths. Chief among them: Ukraine is slowly losing this war.
Many media descriptions of the war in Ukraine as a stalemate do not reflect battlefield reality. The incremental but continual gains the Russians are achieving in the face of courageous Ukrainian resistance are obvious to anyone closely following events on the ground. The question is, if peace is not achieved now on the best terms possible, will those terms - from Kiev's point of view - be any better 3-6 months from now? Absent a dramatic shift such as a coup in Moscow or direct NATO - read US - intervention in the war, the answer to that question is surely no.
Putin considers this to be an existential conflict. From the outset, he has made clear that NATO membership for Ukraine is anathema to Moscow. Further, the 2023 annexation of four oblasts (Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk and Luhansk) in addition to Crimea clearly indicates Russia's minimalist war aims. Sanctions, even secondary sanctions, are unlikely to change him from this course in the near term. Absent an agreement that does not meet those war aims, he is likely to continue the war at least through 2025, by the end of which, the 'Stavka' or Russian General Staff, has told him they will have achieved those objectives. Whether those objectives are, in fact, achievable is open to question. What is beyond question, however, is that the Ukrainian military position is slowly eroding. As Putin's unwillingness to agree to a ceasefire indicates, he believes he has the military initiative
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