Fionnan Sheahan: Jim Gavin is polling well in the early stages - but he's got a problem with women voters
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Fionnan Sheahan: Jim Gavin is polling well in the early stages - but he's got a problem with women voters
"Mary Lou McDonald a threat to Catherine Connolly on the left if Sinn Féin decides she'll run Heather Humphreys lives up to rural champion mantle, but underperforms in Dublin"
"You just don't know until, I suppose, the teams take to the pitch and the ball's thrown in."
Mary Lou McDonald could present a significant left-wing challenge to Catherine Connolly if Sinn Féin selects her as a candidate. Such a nomination would compress progressive vote options and attract Sinn Féin's organizational strength into a high-profile contest. Heather Humphreys reinforces a rural champion identity by performing strongly across non-urban constituencies and promoting rural interests. Humphreys' lower performance in Dublin signals limited urban appeal and difficulties translating rural support into metropolitan votes. You just don't know until, I suppose, the teams take to the pitch and the ball's thrown in. That uncertainty underscores the fluidity of candidate effects and electoral outcomes.
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