European Armament: A Complicated Decoupling from the US Military Industrial Complex

"The European defence industry has been in somewhat of an existential crisis since the Russian invasion of Ukraine back in March 2022. The need for strategic autonomy has long been lauded in the halls of power in Berlin, Paris, Warsaw and Madrid, with a real desire for European defence capabilities to no longer be dependent on the vagaries of U.S. politics, or the limits imposed by U.S. arms export regulations. The constraints of U.S. export control regimes, particularly ITAR, are widely acknowledged as a serious obstacle."

"In March, the European Commission announced its 'ReArmEurope Plan/Readiness 2030', which promises to mobilise €800 billion to enable military spending in the European Union to reach 3.5% of GDP by the end of the decade (compared with 1.9% in 2024). The EU also launched its most ambitious defence industrial strategy to date - the European Defence Industrial Strategy (EDIS), adopted in March 2024, which called for a "war economy mode" and new joint procurement programs."

European defence faces urgent pressure after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, prompting calls for strategic autonomy across major capitals. Despite ambition, Europe remains heavily dependent on US weapons, procurement pipelines, and strategic guarantees. Foreign defence spending rose from €3.1 billion (2019–2021) to €7.9 billion (2022–2024). The European Commission proposed ReArmEurope/Readiness 2030 to mobilise €800 billion and raise EU military spending to 3.5% of GDP by 2030 (1.9% in 2024). The Commission adopted EDIS and EDIP to foster joint procurement, local manufacturing, and a "war economy mode", but initiatives fall short of transatlantic purchase scale and face industrial, export-control, and procurement fragmentation challenges.

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