"Ultimately, Ukraine will only win this war by forcing Russia to spend enough that continuing to send soldiers and equipment into Ukraine becomes financially untenable. Because China maintains a strategic position in global technology manufacturing-especially in drone parts-both Ukraine and Russia draw from the same pool of resources, albeit through different channels. This paradox raises urgent questions about the effectiveness of Western aid and the long-term strategy for ending the war."
"Rather than continuing to fund Ukraine's drone purchases, the West should prioritize dismantling Chinese supply chain dominance. Doing so would not only weaken Russia's access to critical technologies but also strengthen Western industrial capacity and reduce global reliance on China. Economic strategy, not just military support, is key to resolving the war in Ukraine and preparing for future global conflicts."
Ukraine relies heavily on Chinese-manufactured drone components, with some drones built from as much as 65% Chinese parts and major purchases of DJI Mavic models. Shared dependence on Chinese technology means both Ukraine and Russia draw from the same global supply pools via different channels. Western financial and military aid has inadvertently reinforced the supply chains that also benefit Russia. Victory requires making Russian sustainment financially untenable, which may require weakening China’s dominance in drone-component manufacturing. Prioritizing an economic strategy to dismantle Chinese supply chain dominance could reduce Russia’s access to critical technologies and bolster Western industry.
Read at The Cipher Brief
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