
"Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil may well have been spooked by how well Peter Casey did seven years ago - they know that the electorate has become volatile and unpredictable It is the great might-have-been. What might have happened if Maria Steen had managed to get into the presidential race? What kind of vote would she have attracted? Would she have been able to reach beyond her core support among pro-life Catholics."
"Would she have been able to tap into anti-government feeling like businessman Peter Casey did in the presidential election of 2018, when he won almost 25pc of the vote? It was clear that the main parties did not want her in the race, nor any other Independents for that matter."
Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil reacted nervously to the memory of Peter Casey's near-quartet vote share in 2018. Maria Steen could have mobilised a particular base among pro-life Catholics while also testing wider anti-government sentiment. The possibility of an Independent tapping into volatile electorate mood raised concerns about unpredictable electoral outcomes. Questions arose about whether an Independent could expand beyond core supporters to attract disaffected voters. The existing parties positioned themselves to limit Independent entries. The prospect of Independents reshaping vote patterns remained a significant electoral consideration.
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