Conservatives Painted the Suburbs Blue. Can the NDP Reclaim Ground? | The Walrus

"The Conservative Party's share of the popular vote increased by 7.6 percentage points since the last election, securing the party twenty-five additional seats. That's despite a leader whose Donald Trump-like style, in an election where the US president was a key factor, became a liability, costing his own seat. In turn, left-leaning parties saw considerable losses. Most notably, voters ousted the New Democratic Party and the Bloc Québécois from suburban ridings."

"Aniket Kali and Jeff Allen at the University of Toronto's School of Cities found that Conservatives made significant gains in the suburbs of Toronto and Vancouver, where they won seven of their twenty-five new seats. But the cut is deeper. The study shows that across Canada, of the eighteen suburban seats that flipped in this year's election, fifteen switched to a more conservative option: from the NDP and the Bloc to the Liberal Party, and from the Liberals to the Conservatives."

"To be fair, the suburbs were already largely conservative. Only thirteen out of sixty-six suburban ridings in the Toronto, Montreal, and Vancouver areas had an NDP or Bloc MP, but now there are just four, and they are all around Montreal, where the Bloc is not only the left-leaning option but also the largest Quebec nationalist option, which gives it a marked advantage."

Conservative support rose by 7.6 percentage points, yielding twenty-five additional seats despite a polarizing leader who lost his own seat. Left-leaning parties experienced notable losses, especially in suburban areas. University of Toronto researchers found Conservatives won seven of their new seats in Toronto and Vancouver suburbs. Nationwide, eighteen suburban seats flipped, fifteen moving to more conservative options: from NDP and Bloc to Liberals, and from Liberals to Conservatives. Only four suburban ridings now hold NDP or Bloc MPs, all near Montreal. The suburbs have trended right for years, confining progressive parties mainly to Toronto city limits.

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