"For more than three decades after the Cold War, Europe lived under the illusion that history had settled in its favor. Liberal democracy seemed ascendant, global markets expanded without friction, and American military primacy insulated the continent from hard-power competition. Under those conditions, the European Union could focus on enlargement, regulation, and internal integration rather than geopolitics. That era is finished."
"U.S. primacy is no longer guaranteed. Washington is now stretched between deterring China in the Indo-Pacific, supporting Ukraine, and managing crises in the Middle East. American policymakers-across both parties-increasingly resent Europe's reliance on U.S. defense guarantees and expect the EU to realign its China policy with America's priorities. Europe's security depends on a partner whose long-term predictability it cannot ensure."
Europe has entered a multipolar era dominated by the United States, China, and Russia, leaving the continent's strategic role uncertain. The EU faces external pressures and internal constraints that will determine whether it becomes an independent pole of power or a geopolitical appendage. The post-1991 Western order relied on U.S. military dominance, deepening globalization, and the spread of political liberalization; each pillar has eroded. U.S. primacy is stretched by commitments in the Indo-Pacific, Ukraine, and the Middle East, prompting expectations that Europe assume greater strategic responsibility and align its China policy with U.S. priorities. Globalization is fragmenting, squeezing export-dependent European economies. Authoritarian resilience has replaced expectations of Western convergence.
Read at The Cipher Brief
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