As the Miami Heat end a challenging season, they have a significant opportunity to secure Golden State’s 2025 first-round pick, potentially aiding their draft position. Currently holding the 10th worst record, the Heat could land a top pick in the upcoming draft, which could include a star player like Cooper Flagg. Historical analysis indicates the difficulty Miami faces in finding franchise-altering talents with picks between 8 and 22, despite the front office's past success in acquiring All-Stars in that range.
Considering the Heat has had difficulty landing a star in free agency or trades since acquiring Jimmy Butler in 2019, might Miami be able to find a face of its franchise, a perennial All Star, with two picks between 8 and 22?
History shows the Heat's front office is capable of finding All Stars in the teens. But history also shows how difficult it is to find an All NBA type talent in that range.
Teams that pick 8th, 9th and 10th have landed All Stars 11 times in 75 total picks, but not a single All Star has been selected eighth this century.
So there's only a 14.6 chance, historically this century, that you'll find an All Star in that pick range.
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