"The establishment of expected goals, or xG, showed, among other things, that the best goal-scorers score lots of goals mostly because they take lots of high-value shots. Finishing skill matters, but only at the margins. The ability to find space or create space near the goal, over and over again, is the unifying skill among all the best scorers on the planet."
"But once you take a step back from the pass that led to the goal, you'll quickly find yourself subscribing to goals-only nihilism. All efforts to quantify the things that happen farther away from the goal have led to similar conclusions: The stuff that happens between the boxes doesn't have much of an effect on whether or not a goal is scored."
Expected goals (xG) analysis indicates top goal-scorers accumulate goals mainly by taking many high-value shots rather than by superior finishing alone. The critical trait for elite scorers is repeatedly finding or creating space near the goal. Passes that generate those high-value chances identify the best creators. Attempts to quantify play farther from goal consistently show limited effect on scoring outcomes. Highly skilled midfield actions can transform a team’s style but rarely change scorelines as directly as goalmouth actions. Goals ultimately decide matches, so actions that produce scoring opportunities carry disproportionate value.
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