"I remember that a few weeks ago, Michael Baumann at FanGraphs ran an article, the gist of which was, "the lack of playoff races means the system is working," in the sense that if there are six playoff spots per league and there's no fight for any division or Wild Card spot, then six is the "right" number of seeds because it plainly cleaves between "deserving" and "non-deserving" teams."
"The Diamondbacks are also a longshot, and with the season slipping away from them, they sold at the Trade Deadline. Their odds were below three percent, often approaching but not quite zero, for pretty much the five-six weeks after the Deadline. They're only about 12 percent right now, but maybe they pull off a more compressed version of the Tigers' turnaround from last year? The Mets and Reds will need to comply, too."
With only a weekend series and perhaps another game remaining, several postseason races remain unsettled and capable of unusual outcomes. The Mets' playoff probability fell from a 97 percent peak on August 27 to 68 percent, allowing for a rapid collapse. The Reds' postseason chances dipped to one percent on September 5, climbed as high as 44 percent, and now sit near 20 percent, illustrating dramatic reversals. The Diamondbacks traded at the Deadline, saw odds linger below three percent for weeks, and are about 12 percent now. The Astros' odds tumbled to roughly 25 percent after previously being near 98 percent.
Read at Battery Power
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