"He has amassed 31.3 fWAR in 5,197 PAs to date, a rate of 3.6 fWAR/600 PAs - though in Olson's case, it's worth noting that he's substantially exceeded 600 PAs in each of his last five seasons. He has a 133 wRC+ with no notable xwOBA underperformance (.363 wOBA, .367 xwOBA). His value tends to be minorly held back by poor baserunning (half a win lost in 2025, a bit less in 2024)."
"I mostly find it more interesting to focus on the future, on what might happen, and with what likelihood. This is an artifact of my broad interest in roster construction, an exercise which requires you to pick a target (as many wins as possible, making the playoffs, etc.) and then assembling a set of players under the constraint of a budget whose production distribution curves presumably meet that target across a high proportion of trials."
Matt Olson will enter his age-32 season in 2026 after parts of ten MLB seasons and 5,197 plate appearances. He has produced 31.3 fWAR (about 3.6 fWAR per 600 PAs) and a 133 wRC+ with a .363 wOBA and .367 xwOBA, indicating little underperformance. Baserunning has cost him about half a win in 2025 and slightly less in 2024. Defensive contribution at first base is roughly +3 OAA-based runs per 1,000 innings, insufficient to offset the positional adjustment. Olson is in year five of an eight-year extension paying $22 million annually, with a $20 million option year.
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