"For pitchers, though, it was all over the place. Sometimes one system clearly did better than the others, but more to the point, pitchers had breakouts and lost seasons that deviated from their central estimate (or even their distribution, insofar as I could generate or infer it) more often. Why this dichotomy? My guess - an educated guess based on me tinkering with IWAG to little avail - is that hitters"
"playing through or affected by injury tend to just kind of look like less effective versions of themselves, but pitcher injuries completely upend both availability and effectiveness. On the flip side, I can't really confirm that a pitcher feeling "really" healthy can set a new performance baseline, so maybe that's just attributable to pitch design and mechanics cleanup things. Either way, though, pitchers were less predictable."
IWAG matched Steamer and ZiPS for position players, producing similar forecasts and comparable misses and successes. Pitcher forecasts were far more variable, with systems sometimes diverging and pitchers experiencing breakouts or lost seasons outside central expectations. Hitters playing through injury tend to resemble less effective versions of themselves, while pitcher injuries can simultaneously disrupt availability and effectiveness. Improvements in pitcher health might reset performance baselines through mechanics or pitch design, adding further uncertainty. Grant Holmes experienced elbow trouble without Tommy John surgery, faces unclear health and role prospects, is out of options, and may be limited in where he can contribute.
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