"They need to see if he can be effective again before moving on. Little gets whiffs and groundballs at an elite level; he ranked in the 100th and 97th percentile in these metrics last year, respectively. He struck out 30.2% of the batters he faced while holding them to a .195 expected batting average. Few relievers in baseball put up those kinds of numbers."
"Little broke out in the first half of 2025 with a 2.11 ERA through the end of June. That number doubled to 4.20 the rest of the way, culminating in several meltdowns during the ALCS against the Seattle Mariners that jeopardized the Blue Jays' season. Walks are Little's kryptonite. His 15.3% walk rate in 2025 was among the worst in baseball and ballooned his WHIP to 1.36. His inability to limit free passes got worse as the season progressed;"
"This is especially true given Little's second-percentile extension. He releases the ball just 5.6 feet in front of the rubber. That pales in comparison to someone like Aroldis Chapman, who releases the ball with 7.3 feet of extension. The ball has to travel further when Little throws it, which grants batters more time to make swing decisions. This could be offset by elite velocity, but Little's sinking fastball sits at just 93.4 mph."
Brendon Little posted a 2.11 ERA through June 2025 but regressed to a 4.20 ERA the rest of the season and had key ALCS meltdowns. He generates elite whiffs and groundballs, ranking in the 100th and 97th percentiles, striking out 30.2% while holding a .195 expected batting average. Control is the main problem: a 15.3% walk rate raised his WHIP to 1.36, with 17 walks in his final 24 regular-season innings and five more in four playoff innings. He releases the ball 5.6 feet from the rubber and throws a 93.4 mph sinking fastball, so limited extension and velocity amplify his command issues. He should be evaluated in 2026 on a short leash.
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