"One is the Blue Jays, who around 45% of MLBTR readers view as likely to hold onto the division as of yesterday's poll. The other is the Astros, who took control of the division off the back of a dominant 19-7 month of June but since then have struggled to keep pace. They're 26-29 since the start of July and 16-21 since July 24."
"That rebound in recent weeks has helped them stay afloat, but there's still cause for concern. What was once a dominant front two in the rotation has now dropped to one; while Hunter Brown is still excelling amid a campaign that's likely to earn him legitimate consideration for the Cy Young award, Framber Valdez is struggling badly of late with an ERA north of 6.00 since the start of August."
Fangraphs gives each current division leader at least a 60% chance to finish the regular season leading their division. The Blue Jays and Astros are notably less secure; Toronto sits near 45% perceived chance among MLBTR readers, while Houston has faded since June despite a 19-7 month. The Astros are 26-29 since July and 16-21 since July 24. The rotation has fallen from a two‑headed strength to one; Hunter Brown remains excellent while Framber Valdez has an ERA north of 6.00 since August. The bullpen lost a key arm to a sprained shoulder, the lineup ranks 29th in runs since August, and key players are on the injured list. Houston's +14 run differential is the lowest among current playoff teams and a September schedule heavy with Rangers and Mariners games complicates matters.
Read at MLB Trade Rumors
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