"Breaking out means different things for different teams. For the White Sox, it meant being less terrible than their record-setting 2024 collapse. For the Athletics, it meant a return to respectability, laying the foundation for a possible playoff run in 2026. For the Blue Jays, it meant falling inches shy of a World Series championship. The total of three breakout teams in 2025 was lower than usual."
"By these definitions, there has been an average of 5.1 breakout teams per season during the wild-card era (since 1995). The yearly totals range from just two (in 2010) to nine (2023), not counting the pandemic-shortened 2020 season. There it is: In a typical season we can expect to have five breakout teams. The trick is to figure out who they will be."
An annual attempt identifies MLB teams likely to break out by defining a breakout as at least 10 more wins than expected from recent performance. The baseline uses wins per 162 games from the previous two seasons with double weight to the most recent season. Historical baselines ranged from the Dodgers at 98.7 to the White Sox at 47.7. In 2025 three teams exceeded their baseline by 10 or more wins: the White Sox, Athletics and Blue Jays, each with different implications. Since 1995 the average is 5.1 breakout teams per season, with totals typically between two and nine.
Read at ESPN.com
Unable to calculate read time
Collection
[
|
...
]