"Behind a quartet of marquee signings that should help the Toronto Blue Jays keep pace with the rest of Major League Baseball's elite, one would think that the reigning American League pennant winners would be heavily favored to repeat as division champions. Alas, FanGraphs' official MLB playoff odds for the 2026 season have been released. Suffice it to say, the picture is not a pretty one for the Jays."
"The first thing to note is that the Blue Jays are projected to finish with a meager 85-77 record, which is actually the fourth-best mark in the Junior Circuit (the odds seem to heavily favor National League teams). No AL team is projected to clear more than 88 wins (the Seattle Mariners hold that top spot), with the Guardians and Yankees estimated to win their divisions with about 86-87 wins apiece."
Four marquee signings should help the Toronto Blue Jays remain competitive with Major League Baseball's elite. Projections place the Blue Jays at an 85-77 record, the fourth-best mark in the American League. No AL team is projected to exceed 88 wins, with Seattle projected highest and the Guardians and Yankees near 86-87 wins. Projections are conservative compared with 2025, when Toronto and New York each posted 94 wins and Houston missed the playoffs with 87 wins. The Blue Jays' playoff probability is about 61.5%, AL East title odds fall below 25%, and World Series odds sit under 5%.
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