Reynaldo Lopez had a standout 2024 season, finishing with a sub-2.00 ERA while showcasing an unusual disparity with various ERA estimators. His xERA significantly exceeded his actual ERA, marking a notable achievement in Braves history. The article discusses Lopez's substantial ERA-FIP gap, attributing it largely to sequencing luck rather than sustainable pitching skill. This leads to questions about whether his remarkable performance can be replicated in 2025, considering the influential role of sequencing in his success.
Reynaldo Lopez had an impressive 2024 season with a sub-2.00 ERA, yet his underlying metrics suggest that this performance may not be repeatable.
The vast disparity between Lopez's ERA estimators and his actual ERA raises questions about whether his success in 2024 was due to skill or good fortune.
Lopez's success largely stemmed from favorable sequencing, as he had the highest ERA-FIP gap attributable to this factor among 157 pitchers.
The article explores whether Lopez can replicate his 2024 performance in 2025 despite the signs pointing to luck rather than sustainable skill.
Collection
[
|
...
]