"Strider hasn't really pitched all that poorly this season, but the 4.97 ERA will wear on you mentally, if nothing else. His strikeout rate is about 9.5 per nine innings, and the walk rate sits at about 3.5 per nine. The walk rate is a little up from his career norms, though not much, but the strikeouts haven't been there, of course. It all settles out to 4.12 xFIP."
"The real culprit has been the long ball. His career HR/FB rate sits around 12%, which is higher than league average, but when you throw as hard as he does, it's not all that surprising. You throw hard, and you pitch up in the zone. Batters are bound to pop a few out of the stadium, but his HR/FB rate is 16.5% this season."
"I will say that his velocity and break have held fairly steady throughout the season, so my thought on shutting him down is more about letting him have an extended offseason to try to get some of that back. Coming back from major injuries mid-season can be tough - you don't get a rest period while you're rehabbing - and Strider doesn't really need to build innings - he's thrown almost 190 innings in a previous season."
Spencer Strider carries a 4.97 ERA with a 9.5 K/9 and 3.5 BB/9, translating to a 4.12 xFIP. His season HR/FB rate is 16.5%, above a career level near 12%, driving much of the runs allowed. Velocity is down roughly 1.5 mph from pre-surgery and 2.5 mph from his peak, and pitch movement has declined, reducing strikeouts and increasing home runs. Velocity and break have otherwise been steady across the season. Allowing an extended offseason could aid recovery without needing to build innings. Luis Castillo shows age-related decline with an 8 K/9, reduced groundball rate near 40%, and a 4.21 xFIP.
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