"What Suárez does well is run prevention. He worked to a 3.20 ERA (137 ERA+) and 3.21 FIP in 26 starts for the Philadelphia Phillies in 2025. Unfortunately, the process through which he produced those results doesn't inspire confidence. The southpaw gave up 154 hits across a career-high 157 1/3 innings pitched last year with a pedestrian 151 strikeouts. He allowed just 14 home runs, but that was with an outlier 8.8% HR-to-flyball rate well below his career average."
"Another red flag is that Suárez's primary pitch is losing velocity. He averaged just 90.1 mph on his sinker in 2025 , which sat at 92.8 mph as recently as 2023. Batters responded to this decline by hitting .310 with an average exit velocity of 90.8 mph off the pitch. All this data paints the picture of a pitcher who is becoming easier to hit - and someone who could have a hard time living up to a lucrative long-term contract."
"It's not hard to envision a scenario where Suárez gets paid like an ace yet quickly becomes a pitcher whose ERA sits around 4.00. The lefty also comes with durability concerns, having never made a full 30 starts in a season or reached the 160-inning plateau. However, the bigger issue is that Suárez isn't the kind of pitcher the Blue Jays need, even when he's at his best."
Ranger Suárez posted a 3.20 ERA (137 ERA+) and 3.21 FIP in 26 starts while allowing 154 hits in 157 1/3 innings with 151 strikeouts. He surrendered just 14 home runs amid an unusually low 8.8% HR-to-flyball rate and recorded a career-worst 46.8% groundball rate. His sinker velocity dropped to 90.1 mph from 92.8 mph in 2023, and hitters logged a .310 average with 90.8 mph average exit velocity against it. Durability concerns remain, and the profile lacks the power, high-strikeout upside the Blue Jays need atop their rotation.
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