Q&A: Who will win Andalusia's elections and why does it matter for Spain?

"Voters in Spain's most populous region are set to head to the polls this weekend. But who's running, what do the polls say, and what could the results of Andalusia's regional election mean for national politics? Spain's southern region of Andalusia is soon set for elections. On Sunday May 17th, Andaluces head to the polls in a vote that will be keenly watched around the country."

"As it stands, the PP dominates the Andalusian parliament with 58 seats, followed by the PSOE (30) and Vox (14), with smaller leftist parties splitting 5 seats between them. When is polling day? The Andalusian regional election has been called for Sunday 17th May 2026."

"The favourite, Juan Manuel Moreno Bonilla, is the ruling People's Party President of Andalusia. In 2018, Moreno's PP secured a historic victory to end three decades of PSOE rule in the region. In 2022 the PP retained power with an absolute majority in an unprecedented victory for the party which was a long-time PSOE stronghold. Now Moreno is seeking a third term, though his and his party's standing has taken a reputational hit in the region in recent months following the breast cancer screening scandal and criticisms of management in the Andalusian public healthcare system."

"The campaign will see big name candidates with name and face recognition, results expected to have a ripple effect on national politics, and perhaps even a preview of how negotiations between the centre-right PP and far-right Vox could go at the national level. If the polls are to be believed, the election could also signal another regional election defeat for the governing Socialists (PSOE) and Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez."

Andalusia is holding a regional election on Sunday 17 May 2026, with results closely watched across Spain. The governing People’s Party (PP) currently leads the Andalusian parliament with 58 seats, followed by the Spanish Socialist Workers’ Party (PSOE) with 30 seats and Vox with 14 seats, while smaller leftist parties hold 5 seats. The PP’s candidate is Juan Manuel Moreno Bonilla, who previously ended three decades of PSOE rule in 2018 and won an absolute majority again in 2022. His campaign faces reputational damage tied to a breast cancer screening scandal and criticism of management in Andalusian public healthcare. Polling is expected to indicate another regional defeat for the PSOE and Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez, and may preview negotiations between PP and Vox at the national level.

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