The US Office Metros Outlook indicates that by 2025, office values in major metros will decline, but a regional divide will emerge from 2026. Southern cities, especially Miami, are positioned to benefit significantly, anticipating over 15% growth and annual returns of 9.5% through 2029. Miami will see strong rent increases and declining vacancy rates. Houston follows closely with an 11.5% growth forecast but is considered overvalued. Overall, the Sun Belt cities are projected to continue thriving, while major markets elsewhere are likely to struggle.
Miami is set to top the leaderboard in the next phase of the office market cycle, projected to achieve more than 15% capital growth over the next five years.
Projected total returns for Miami are estimated at 9.5% per year from 2025 through 2029, with an elevated return rate of 12.5% per year for 2026 through 2029.
Houston is another southern winner, with capital growth forecast at 11.5% over the five-year span and strong rent prospects supporting its outlook.
Broadly, winners from the last five years are projected to remain winners through the back half of the 2020s, including markets like Phoenix, Dallas, and Houston.
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