"Payroll matters but it's still no excuse. The likely playoff bracket looks loaded with big markets and big spenders, but teams like the Brewers and Kansas City Royals kind of take away the excuses of everyone who bemoans baseball's economic disparity. Not that we shouldn't seek to even the field, but in the meantime, teams should still be trying to win."
"Win average: 98.7 (Last: 95.9, 1st) In the playoffs: 100.0% (Last: 99.2%) Champions: 18.3% (Last:11.3%) How we ranked the teams This Stock Watch uses projections based on blended 2025 forecasts from my model, FanGraphs, Baseball Prospectus and ESPN Bet over/unders. These were used to create a baseline win expectation, which was then used as the basis for 10,000 simulations of the rest of the 2025 schedule, yielding our win forecasts and postseason probabilities."
Milwaukee Brewers topped the rankings for a second consecutive month, demonstrating competitive success beyond payroll size. Payroll matters but cannot fully explain standings; teams like the Brewers and Kansas City Royals undermine economic-disparity excuses and show smaller spenders can contend. Projections use blended 2025 forecasts from a model, FanGraphs, Baseball Prospectus and ESPN Bet over/unders to create baseline win expectations, then 10,000 simulations of remaining games produce win and postseason probabilities. Trade-deadline changes are assessed, with San Diego's deadline haul shoring roster holes and raising its floor, Mason Miller elevating the bullpen ceiling, and rotation departures posing potential concerns.
Read at ESPN.com
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