The Thaw Begins?: What's Driving IPR Institutions Under Director Squires

"IPR institution rates under Director John Squires have begun to climb. My tracking data shows the six-week moving average rising from lows around 15% in August and September 2025 to somewhere in the range of 35-55% by late December 2025 and into January 2026. The rebound remains far below the historic average of roughly 67% that prevailed before Acting Director Coke Morgan Stewart began centralizing discretionary denial authority followed by Director Squires assumption of personal control of all institution decisions in October 2025."

"Still, the uptick signals something meaningful: the IPR system is not dead, and a discernible framework for institution has begun to emerge from what initially appeared to be an era of blanket denials. The patterns in recent grants reveal that Director Squires is operating with something resembling an equitable framework that requires petitioners to go beyond the statutory "reasonable likelihood" threshold to encompass broader considerations of fairness and systemic efficiency."

IPR institution rates under Director John Squires rose from lows near 15% in August–September 2025 to roughly 35–55% by late December 2025 and January 2026. The rebound remains well below the historic average of about 67% that prevailed before Acting Director Coke Morgan Stewart centralized discretionary denial authority and before Squires assumed personal control of institution decisions in October 2025. The uptick indicates the IPR system remains active and that a discernible institutional framework is emerging after a period of broad denials. Recent grants show Squires applying an equitable approach that expects petitioners to exceed the statutory "reasonable likelihood" threshold and weighs fairness and systemic efficiency. The USPTO's early January 2026 designation of numerous institution decisions as precedential or informative further clarifies settled principles for future practice.

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