The Myth of Patent Growth

U.S. utility patent application volumes rose from about 200k in 2002 to roughly 425k in 2024, then eased in 2025. The increase is not matched by U.S.-origin original applications, defined as non-continuations with first-named inventors in the United States. That category has been flat or declining over more than two decades and was higher in the mid-2000s than in recent completed years. Its share of total applications fell from about one-third early in the series to around 13% in 2022–2024. Growth comes from increased domestic continuation filings and increased foreign-origin filings seeking U.S. rights. A 2026 projection suggests U.S.-origin share may rise due to January 2025 fee changes reducing continuations and a small, unexplained increase in U.S.-origin originals.

"Published U.S. utility patent applications roughly doubled over the past two decades, climbing from around 200k in 2002 to a peak near 425k in 2024 before easing back in 2025. That top line (grey in the chart below) looks like a steady expansion of American inventive activity. But, the chart actually tells a different story once you separate out what is actually growing."

"The blue band at the base counts only U.S.-origin originals: applications whose first-named inventor sits in the United States and that are not continuations, divisionals, or continuations-in-part. That band has not grown. It sits in a flat or even declining range across the full twenty-plus years -- and even higher in the mid-2000s than in the most recent completed years. As a share of the total, U.S.-origin originals fell from roughly a third early in the series to about 13% in 2022 through 2024."

"The growth found in grey comes from two sources: The first source is domestic continuation practice, which has increased over the years. These are follow-on patents relying on the same underlying disclosure of that U.S. original. Additional exclusive rights without the corresponding additional innovation. The second source is foreign-origin filing, the rest of the world seeking U.S. patent rights. These have also grown significantly over the years as more nations come on-line as tech generators."

"The 2026 projection, scaled from the first 22 weeks of publication data, projects the U.S.-origin share rising back toward 18%. That reversal has two separate factors. One is a drop in continuation filings traceable to the January 2025 fee changes. The other is a small increase in U.S.-origin original applications that I don't yet have an explanation for."

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