"Looking ahead to 2026, I don't expect a single "big bang" cyber event so much as a steady escalation in quiet, hard-to-spot campaigns. Instead of smashing through the front door, more attackers will simply walk in using valid credentials, abusing identity systems, single sign-on and trusted AI agents to blend into normal activity. These operations will be longer-running, more tightly linked to geopolitical and ideological tensions, and increasingly aimed at disrupting real-world services, not just stealing data."
"At the same time, the foundational capabilities and infrastructure we use to build, innovate, and operate securely, like cloud, AI, [operational technology and information technology] convergence, satellite connectivity, and eventually quantum and 6G, are rapidly expanding the attack surface. The core challenge for 2026 is reconciling this pace of innovation with the need for true end-to-end security. That means assuming identities will be targeted, designing continuous monitoring and validation,"
Attackers will shift toward stealthy, long-duration campaigns that abuse valid credentials, identity systems, single sign-on, and trusted AI agents to blend with normal activity and target real-world services. Operations will become more tightly linked to geopolitical and ideological tensions and prioritize disruption over simple data theft. Expanding foundations such as cloud, AI, OT/IT convergence, satellite connectivity, and future technologies like quantum and 6G will enlarge the attack surface. Effective defense requires assuming identities will be targeted, designing continuous monitoring and validation, and integrating threat intelligence, AI-driven detection, and next-gen SOC capabilities into core operational models.
Read at Nextgov.com
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