"Starting this year, the graduating classes of high schools across the country are getting smaller, the result of fewer people having children during the Great Recession and the years after. Even after the economy rebounded, the birth rate kept dropping. The COVID pandemic led to another sharp decline. This is the beginning of what college officials call the "demographic cliff." Higher education is one of the few industries that can predict its future customer base far in advance."
"What alarms campus officials suggests an opportunity to many parents who assume the shift will work in their favor, improving their kids' odds of getting into top-ranked schools or securing bigger breaks on tuition from colleges desperate to fill seats. Just this spring, before the enrollment cliff really hit, several colleges sent out surprise financial-aid packages to students who had already committed elsewhere in an effort to lure them in after coming up short in attracting enough freshmen to fill empty seats."
Falling birth rates since the Great Recession and a further decline during the COVID pandemic are producing smaller high-school graduating classes starting this year. Projections show annual decreases through 2041, totaling about a 13 percent drop to roughly 3.4 million high-school graduates. The resulting enrollment cliff will alter the higher-education landscape, with some colleges facing closures, mergers, or major restructuring while others compete for fewer students. Some families may see improved admission chances or larger financial-aid offers as colleges attempt to fill seats, but outcomes will vary by geography and institutional market position.
Read at Intelligencer
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