Open the Black Box of Faculty Salary Models (opinion)

"A recent report from the American Association of University Professors found that, despite a 3.8 percent increase in full-time faculty salaries in fall 2024, inflation-adjusted compensation remained 6.2 percent below pre-pandemic levels. The same report reveals that growth in salaries for university presidents has outpaced the growth in faculty salaries, with the median salaries of university presidents ranging from $268,000 at public associate-granting institutions to more than $900,000 at private doctoral universities."

"A rule of thumb in the world of statistical modeling is that if all elements of a model are not visible and you cannot reproduce a model, you cannot trust it. As an expert in modeling, I can say without a doubt that faculty salary models fail the basic tests of clarity and reproducibility."

"While institutions claim to invest in people, many faculty, having seen their wages decline in real terms, feel left behind. As faculty try to understand which critical features determine the numbers on their paychecks, we realize that salary models are often unable to provide clear answers because they evolved piecemeal over decades, are shaped by constraints and ultimately represent an accumulation of historical decisions."

Faculty members entered academia motivated by intellectual pursuits and educational values rather than financial rewards. However, recent data reveals concerning compensation trends: despite a 3.8 percent salary increase in fall 2024, inflation-adjusted faculty compensation remains 6.2 percent below pre-pandemic levels. Meanwhile, university president salaries have grown significantly faster, ranging from $268,000 to over $900,000 depending on institution type. A statistician with over a decade of experience on faculty compensation committees identifies a critical systemic problem: salary models lack basic clarity and reproducibility. These opaque models evolved piecemeal over decades, shaped by various constraints, making it impossible for faculty to understand which factors determine their compensation.

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