No, It's Not (Mostly) About Tuition
Briefly

No, It's Not (Mostly) About Tuition
"As a kid, I remember science often being taught through myth busting. It was an engaging way to learn to ask questions, even if some examples worked better than others. (When someone responded to "people thought the earth is flat because it looks flat" with "what would it look like if it were round?" it broke my pre-adolescent brain.) The lesson behind the lesson was that science is a good way to fact-check, even if the facts in question seem obvious."
"Most of the college enrollment drop over the last 15 years has occurred at community colleges, which typically have the lowest tuition of any sector. If the "high prices are scaring students away" story were true, the opposite would have happened. In fact, the most expensive four-year schools continue to turn people away. Enrollment decline is not primarily about tuition."
"The whole thing is worth reading, but I'll give a few highlights. About 30 percent of the reported drop in community college enrollment is a result of two-year colleges starting to offer four-year degrees. When their enrollments move from one category to the other, it causes a drop in one and an increase in the other. It's actually closer to a measurement error."
Most of the college enrollment decline over the last 15 years occurred at community colleges, which typically have the lowest tuition. Enrollment decline is not primarily about tuition because the most expensive four-year schools continue to turn people away. About 30 percent of the reported drop reflects two-year colleges adding four-year degrees, shifting students between categories and producing a measurement artifact. About 60 percent of the decline stems from students on the enrollment-or-work margin who opted for paid employment when the low-end job market improved. Community colleges lost students mainly to paid employment, not four-year colleges.
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