Merck will report Q4 2025 earnings on Feb. 3, 2026 before market open with Wall Street expecting $2.01 in EPS and $16.12 billion in revenue, a 3.1% year-over-year increase. Analysts have reconfirmed estimates, indicating confidence in execution despite headwinds. Based on historical volatility, the stock typically moves 3%–5% on earnings surprises, and a meaningful beat is defined as EPS of at least $2.10 with revenue of $16.5 billion or more. Merck has beaten estimates three consecutive quarters with an average surprise of 5.1%, showing Keytruda strength, Gardasil weakness in China, raised full-year guidance, and ongoing Verona Pharma integration to monitor.
"Wall Street expects EPS of $2.01 per share with revenue consensus at $16.12 billion."
"A meaningful beat would require EPS of at least $2.10 (4.5% above consensus) paired with revenue of $16.5 billion or higher."
"Keytruda sales reached $8.14 billion, up 10% year-over-year, demonstrating continued strength in oncology despite increasing biosimilar competition concerns"
"CEO Robert Davis emphasized "delivering value through innovative portfolio" while "securing future with pipeline investments.""
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