"In 2025, we whiffed. You would have been wise to bet the anti-portfolio. While we (always 😂) think some of our predictions may still come true, an honest grading says we were Jets/Mets-like: just two out of 10. We nailed more payor CEOs losing their jobs (Andrew Witty and Lois Quam) and cell therapy coming back into fashion (four acquisitions, notably Capstan by Abbvie at $2.1B)."
"Big companies surprised us by what they did and didn't do. Namely, HCSC's willingness to incinerate a ton of money by acquiring Cigna's MA book and Illumina, down 40% in 2025, has not been acquired (though nice Q3 earnings bounce). We were also surprised Apple did not launch glucose sensing with WatchOS 26, despite our recurring prediction that Big Tech will underdeliver in healthcare."
Most 2025 predictions missed, with only two of ten being correct. Payor leadership changes occurred, including Andrew Witty and Lois Quam departures, and cell therapy returned via four acquisitions, led by AbbVie’s $2.1B Capstan deal. AI point solutions remained attractive to investors, propping up marginal businesses, and only one major health-tech IPO (Hinge) declined then recovered. Medicare Advantage did not rebound in 2025 as expected, and CMS forecasts a one-million-member MA decline in 2026. Large companies made surprising moves: HCSC acquired Cigna’s MA book aggressively, Illumina shares fell without an acquirer, and Apple did not release glucose sensing.
Read at Fortune
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