German state election a test for chancellor Friedrich Merz

"A year after winning national elections, the CDU is aiming to snatch first place in the south-western state from the Greens, who have won the last two state elections. Merz's party until recently enjoyed large poll leads in the state, but these have shrunk in recent months. The latest survey put the CDU and the Greens neck and neck on 28%."

"On Friday, Merz attended the CDU's final campaign rally and said the vote would be watched outside Germany by people who would ask Is the CDU still able to win elections, even when in government at such a turbulent time? A poor showing in the state, traditionally a CDU stronghold, would be an inauspicious start for Merz's party."

"The AfD has been polling at 18%, which would be a record score for the anti-immigration party in Baden-Württemberg but still short of its national poll rating of about 25%, similar to the CDU. On 22 March, it will aim to beat the centre-left Social Democrats (SPD) in the western state of Rhineland-Palatinate."

Friedrich Merz's centre-right CDU faces a critical regional election in Baden-Württemberg, Germany's prosperous automotive hub with 11.2 million residents. The party aims to reclaim first place from the incumbent Greens, who won the previous two state elections. Recent polling shows the CDU and Greens tied at 28%, down from the CDU's earlier substantial leads. CDU candidate Manuel Hagel, a 37-year-old former banker, faced controversy over sexist comments made during a 2018 school visit but has apologized. The Greens' candidate Cem Özdemir, 60, would become Germany's first state premier of Turkish heritage if elected. The AfD polls at 18%, a record for the state though below its national 25% rating. This election represents the first of several regional votes this year where the CDU hopes its stricter migration policies will reclaim voters from the far-right party.

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