Florence Gaub, NATO's futurist': You can slide into a world war even if nobody wants it'

"This war has been brewing since at least the early 2000s, when the Iranian nuclear program was first discovered. When the source of a conflict is not resolved and material capability coincides with the will to act, war is always just a matter of time."

"My German grandfather was a Luftwaffe pilot. My French grandfather was in the Resistance against the Nazis. From an early age, I was aware of what war was and that the two countries I came from had been enemies. My career stems from there: I wanted to understand how a society digests a war, how it rebuilds itself, and above all, what can be done to ensure it does not happen again."

"I'm not the norm, either in the way I think or in the way I look. But that hasn't worked against me. Military personnel appreciate unconventional perspectives that challenge traditional thinking and bring fresh approaches to complex security challenges."

Florence Gaub, a 48-year-old Franco-German political scientist, heads the Research Division at NATO's Defense College in Rome. She specializes in foresight and scenario analysis to predict future crises. Her career motivation stems from her family history—a German grandfather who was a Luftwaffe pilot and a French grandfather in the Resistance—which made her acutely aware of war's consequences and societal recovery. She joined NATO at 31, despite being younger than typical candidates, because she possessed rare qualifications: fluency in English, French, and Arabic, a doctorate, and Middle East expertise. Gaub approaches her work unconventionally, drawing inspiration from science fiction and employing humor, which distinguishes her within traditional defense institutions.

Read at english.elpais.com