Chess: Favourite Fabiano Caruana loses twice in runup to world title Candidates

"Caruana was second to the former Russian, Mikhail Antipov, in the Saint Louis Masters, though he was unbeaten with 7/9, so this was still a good result. But then, in the American Cup, a double elimination format knockout, he lost to both Wesley So and Levon Aronian in similar fashion, winning the first classical game with White, losing the second with Black, then losing the speed tie-break 1.5-2.5."

"Both defeats followed a pattern where Caruana was gradually ground down in middle games and endgames without queens, a weakness on which his opponents in Cyprus are sure to focus. So won in 68 moves, while Aronian took only 40, and already had a decisive advantage by move 21."

"Hikaru Nakamura, the world No 2 and popular streamer, and Javokhir Sindarov, the Uzbek who won the 2025 World Cup, are co-second favourites for the Candidates at around 5-1. Arguably the event is more open after Caruana's stumble this week, so that China's Wei Yi, India's Praggnanandhaa Rameshbabu, Anish Giri from the Netherlands, Germany's Matthias Blubaum, and Russia's Andrey Esipenko will all have their supporters."

Fabiano Caruana, world No 3 and reigning US champion, entered the Candidates tournament as the 5-2 favourite but faced setbacks in warm-up events at St Louis. Though he finished second in the Saint Louis Masters with 7/9 points unbeaten, he subsequently lost to both Wesley So and Levon Aronian in the American Cup double elimination knockout. Both defeats followed a similar pattern where Caruana was gradually worn down in middlegames and endgames without queens. So defeated him in 68 moves while Aronian required only 40 moves, establishing decisive advantage by move 21. These losses suggest vulnerability that competitors in Cyprus will target. Nakamura and Sindarov are co-second favourites at 5-1 odds, with Wei Yi, Praggnanandhaa, Giri, Blubaum, and Esipenko also considered contenders.

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