PCs, phones to get more boring, expensive in 2026

"This is perhaps the biggest challenge the industry has faced since its inception. This is not just a temporary situation. This is going to result in a structural reset of the entire industry, in terms of size, in terms of competitive landscape, of the product mix and also on the price."

"To mitigate the cost and the short supply, IDC expects consumers to hang on to devices longer, or turn to used and refurbished units. Device makers meanwhile are likely to downgrade memory on their least expensive devices, optimize features around using less memory, or in some cases turn to Chinese suppliers that they've avoided over geopolitical or technical concerns."

"Researchers at Gartner this week also said some types of memory have doubled or quadrupled in price since last year, and Gartner believes DRAM and NAND flash used in PCs and phones is set for a further 130 percent rise by the end of 2026."

Memory shortages driven by AI ambitions are fundamentally reshaping the consumer device industry. IDC projects PC market decline of 11.3 percent in 2026 and smartphone decline of 12.9 percent, substantially worse than previous forecasts. Device manufacturers face critical choices: reducing memory on budget models, optimizing features for lower memory consumption, or sourcing from Chinese suppliers despite geopolitical concerns. Consumers are expected to retain devices longer and purchase refurbished units. Memory prices have doubled or quadrupled, with further 130 percent increases projected by end of 2026. Industry experts characterize this as a structural reset affecting market size, competition, product mix, and pricing, with challenges extending into 2027.

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