As Israel intensifies Lebanon attacks, Hezbollah disarmament takes backseat

"After more than a year of holding fire, Hezbollah last week launched a volley of missiles and drones towards an Israeli military site in the northern city of Haifa. The Lebanese group said the attack was in response to the killing of Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on the first day of the United States-Israeli war on Iran on February 28. Iran is Hezbollah's main benefactor."

"Under the terms of a 2024 ceasefire deal between Hezbollah and Israel after more than a year of fighting, Israeli troops were to withdraw from southern Lebanon, and the group's fighters were to go north of the Litani River that runs across the south of the country. Both sides would stop attacks, and the south would be handed over to the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) even though Israel violated the ceasefire more than 10,000 times."

"Analysts say the increasingly contentious issue of Hezbollah's role in Lebanon cannot come about before the end of the war in the country, due to the active fighting and its potential effect within LAF ranks. Such a solution is also seen as highly tied to the US and Israel's war on Iran."

After Iran's Supreme Leader was killed on February 28, Hezbollah launched missiles and drones at an Israeli military site in Haifa, breaking over a year of ceasefire. Israel responded with intense air campaigns killing nearly 500 people and displacing half a million Lebanese, while launching new ground operations in southern Lebanon. A 2024 ceasefire agreement required Israeli withdrawal from southern Lebanon and Hezbollah repositioning north of the Litani River, with the Lebanese Armed Forces taking control of the south. However, Israel violated the ceasefire over 10,000 times and killed more than 100 civilians. Military analysts indicate that resolving Hezbollah's disarmament and role in Lebanon cannot proceed during active fighting due to potential divisions within Lebanese Armed Forces ranks and connections to broader US-Israel-Iran conflict dynamics.

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