Ten years after Paris attacks, jihadist threat has evolved

"A decade on from deadly attacks in Paris, the world's two most notorious jihadist groups Islamic State (IS) and Al-Qaeda have significantly evolved and their branches still pose a global security threat, especially from Africa, analysts say. With strong central leadership, the groups were once able to train and then send commandos into Europe to carry out attacks such as the November 13, 2015 strikes in Paris that left 130 people dead."

"But today, IS has lost the sanctuary it once enjoyed in Syria and Iraq. The emblematic leaders of both groups, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi for IS and Ayman al-Zawahiri for Al-Qaeda, were killed in US strikes, respectively in 2019 in Syria and 2022 in Afghanistan. Today, "the structure of the two major command centres is considerably weakened, the leaders are little known, and probably not very involved in the direct management of the threat" they pose, said a French security source, asking not to be named."

""We are seeing a reconfiguration of this jihadist movement, with certain fronts where the franchises remain particularly active," Marc Hecker, executive director of French research centre IFRI and co-author of "The Twenty Years' War, Jihadism and Counterterrorism in the 21st Century," told AFP. But he added "the ultimate strategic objective, for both Al-Qaeda and Daesh (the Arabic acronym for IS), has not changed: the establishment of a global caliphate" of Islamist rule."

Islamic State and Al-Qaeda have evolved but continue to pose global security threats, with branches particularly active in Africa. Strong central leadership previously allowed training and the dispatch of commandos to Europe, culminating in the November 13, 2015 Paris attacks. IS lost territorial sanctuary in Syria and Iraq, and emblematic leaders of both groups were killed in US strikes in 2019 and 2022. Central command structures are considerably weakened and leaders are likely less involved in direct operational management. The movement is reconfiguring with active franchises on several fronts while retaining the strategic aim of establishing a global caliphate. The threat to Europe has shifted toward isolated, often homegrown attacks inspired by jihadist movements.

Read at The Local France