France faces fresh turmoil as Bayrou gambles on a confidence vote he seems doomed to lose

Prime minister François Bayrou has called a confidence vote for 8 September, a high-risk move that could collapse a minority government within weeks. Bayrou faces united opposition from far-right and left parties that have pledged to vote against him. The crisis intensified after proposals for a 2026 budget freeze and the abolition of two public holidays provoked widespread outrage. France confronts a severe deficit and escalating debt pressures while geopolitical demands mount from the war in Ukraine, EU–US trade tensions, and diplomatic rows. President Macron may be forced into a domestic leadership search if the vote fails.

The traditional post-summer rentree feels almost incomplete without an accompanying political crisis in France. And right on cue this year's return from les grandes vacances has delivered but in the form of a shock move that could collapse the government within a fortnight, plunging Europe's second biggest economy into chaos. Prime minister Francois Bayrou stunned the country on Monday by announcing he would seek a back me or sack me confidence vote in the national assembly on 8 September.

France is now bracing for political paralysis or destabilisation as well as its debt crisis at a time when geopolitical demands are intensifying: the war in Ukraine and Russia's threat to Europe's security; EU/US trade tensions and an escalating row with the Trump administration over France's expected recognition of Palestine. As the EU's biggest military power, France is co-leader of the western coalition that could potentially send troops to Ukraine in the event of a peace deal.

Bayrou, appointed by Macron just nine months ago, vowed on Tuesday to fight like a dog to remain in power. But the parliamentary arithmetic is stacked against him, with opposition parties on the far right and the left already declaring they will vote against him. The PM's troubles escalated after he outlined proposals for a budgetary freeze in 2026 and the abolition of two public holidays, a plan that drew howls of outrage from all sides.

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