"The USDA's September Outlook Report shows a 40% increase in the price of wholesale turkey from 2024. Last year, the average price for turkey was $0.94 per pound, the lowest it had been since 2019. The forecast for Thanksgiving 2025 initially was $1.19 per pound which was not an insignificant rise, but not nearly as high as it became after the report was released."
"About 195 million turkeys were raised in 2025, and although that seems like a lot, it is actually the lowest number since 1985. Because the current flock is relatively small, demand and prices are going to increase the closer we get to Thanksgiving. Since that September report came out, over half a million more turkeys were affected by avian flu, which will likely drive prices even higher."
The USDA forecasts roughly a 40% increase in wholesale turkey prices for Thanksgiving 2025 versus 2024. Average wholesale price in 2024 was $0.94 per pound; the forecast moved from $1.19 to $1.315 per pound, effectively $1.32 at retail. A 16-pound turkey that cost $15.04 wholesale last year would cost about $21.12 at the adjusted rate, excluding grocery markups. Avian flu resurfaced in early October, and about 195 million turkeys were raised in 2025—the lowest since 1985—reducing flock size. Over half a million additional turkeys were affected since September, tightening fresh-bird supply and limiting size options.
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