Whatever the forecasts say, shoppers are treating this Thanksgiving like a budget holiday

"Determining if the cost of turkey day dinner has gone up this year depends on which report you read: the consumer price index puts the cost of food at home up 2.7% year over year, and Deloitte suggests prices have held relatively steady with a 0.6% increase. Meanwhile, Wells Fargo's Thanksgiving dinner analysis estimates the cost of the year-end meal is down 2-3%, depending on the shopper's strategy."

""Our models show modest easing in overall food inflation, yet certain staples are still rising," Martin-Rayo said. "Fresh cranberries are up around 12% year-over-year, while squash and sweet potatoes are trending 5-10% higher. Consumers won't face sticker shock, but the inflation baked into every side dish remains a real pressure point for US households.""

Estimates of Thanksgiving dinner costs vary by measure, with some indexes showing modest increases while other analyses show slight declines depending on shopper strategy. Consumers are focusing on affordability and planning to spend less, actively seeking deals and discounts for holiday meals. Restaurants and retailers are responding with bundled offers and steep promotions to attract cost-conscious shoppers. Global food supply faces combined pressures from inflation, climate impacts, and tariffs, driving price volatility for certain staples. Specific side-dish items such as cranberries, squash, and sweet potatoes are seeing notable year-over-year price increases.

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