"The big picture: The nation's turkey flock has shrunk to its smallest size in 40 years, and a rebound in avian flu cases this fall is keeping pressure on supply and prices. Nearly 1.3 million turkeys have been impacted by outbreaks since October, mostly in Minnesota and nearby states, according to USDA data. State of play: The National Turkey Federation says there will be enough birds for Thanksgiving, though fresh and specialty turkeys could tighten if flu cases accelerate."
"$1.73 per pound is the going wholesale rate for frozen hens, about 40% higher than 2024. Yet the latest USDA data says frozen turkeys are selling at retail for 25 cents per pound less than a year ago. Between the lines: Many retailers are selling turkeys at or below cost to draw shoppers in for higher-margin items like wine, desserts and décor - a classic loss-leader strategy that works for big chains such as Walmart, Aldi and Kroger but squeezes smaller grocers."
A rebound in avian flu has reduced the nation's turkey flock to its smallest size in 40 years. Nearly 1.3 million turkeys have been affected by outbreaks since October, concentrated in Minnesota and neighboring states, according to USDA data. Wholesale prices for frozen hens have risen about 40% to $1.73 per pound, while retail prices for frozen turkeys are about $0.25 per pound lower than a year ago. Many large grocers are selling turkeys at or below cost as loss leaders to drive traffic for higher-margin items, squeezing smaller independent grocers. Retail promotions for frozen whole birds have surged ahead of Thanksgiving. Fresh and specialty turkey supplies could tighten if flu cases accelerate.
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