"Wicked: For Good is aiming to be the 11th direct sequel to be nominated for Best Picture and the fifth sequel to be nominated the year directly after its predecessor. Of the three Best Picture-nominated sequels in the last four years, there's Top Gun: Maverick, a legacyquel to a movie that was seen as popcorn fare in the 1980s, and Avatar: The Way of Water and Dune: Part Two, sequels to previous Best Picture nominees that boasted both box-office success and dazzling visual filmmaking."
"These trends suggest Wicked: For Good is going to have a hard time matching last year's ten nominations and two wins. It's basic entropy: Nothing stays red hot forever. Oscar voters aren't Emmy voters - the thrill of something new is a big part of an Oscar narrative, and inevitably there will be voters who feel like a second movie in two years is old news."
Wicked: For Good aims to be the 11th direct sequel nominated for Best Picture and the fifth sequel nominated the year after its predecessor. Recent Best Picture-nominated sequels include Top Gun: Maverick, Avatar: The Way of Water and Dune: Part Two, all with box-office success and striking visuals yet diminished Oscar returns compared with their predecessors. The Way of Water received four nominations and one win after Avatar's nine nominations and three wins; Dune: Part Two dropped from ten nominations and six wins to five nominations and two wins. Oscar voters prize novelty, so sequels must show creative improvement to earn Best Picture recognition.
Read at Vulture
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