'One Battle After Another' looks to be an unlikely box office failure

"Given the critical acclaim and global earnings of $140 million so far, one might assume the film to be a big success financially, especially for a movie that's not part of a franchise or based on a well-known intellectual property. But Variety estimates that given the high cost of producing the film ($130 million), plus a promotional campaign that cost $70 million, the movie has a very steep hole to dig out of financially."

"Add in the fact that studios typically split ticket sales 50/50 with theater owners, and that DiCaprio usually earns "first-dollar gross" (meaning a percentage of sales), Variety's studio sources estimate that "One Battle After Another" would need to make $300 million to break even. Warner Bros., the studio behind the film, disputed Variety's reporting, but did not offer any conflicting budgetary data except to boast that the studio's overall film slate has earned $4 billion so far in 2025."

Paul Thomas Anderson directed One Battle After Another, a film loosely based on Thomas Pynchon's Vineland, starring Leonardo DiCaprio as an aging political revolutionary hunted after years in hiding. Much of the production was filmed in Northern California, including locations from Arcata to Ronald Reagan's former Sacramento mansion. The film has earned $140 million globally and attracted critical praise and Oscar buzz. Reported production costs reached $130 million with an estimated $70 million promotional campaign. Studios typically split box office receipts about 50/50 with exhibitors, and DiCaprio reportedly takes first-dollar gross. Estimates place the break-even point near $300 million, while Warner Bros. disputed those figures and noted a $4 billion studio slate haul in 2025.

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