Let's Try to Enjoy Knowing That We Don't Know What Will Happen on Oscar Sunday

"For final Oscar predictions, let's just try and go with what we know, and not be swept up in any conversations we don't need to be having. Yes, I think the Oscars being as late as mid-March has sent us into mass psychosis, but we really should be having more fun with a year that has not been hinged on one dominant contender."

"As we've seen many of the groups that have overlap with Oscar voters already making their picks, it is clear that a 'Sinners' surge post-breaking the Oscar nominations record was a bit overhyped, at least on the craft side of things. In addition to winning Best Picture and Best Director at the BAFTAs and the guild awards, 'One Battle After Another' has swept just about every major bellwether for Best Adapted Screenplay, Best Cinematography, and Best Editing."

"Where 'Sinners' has been doing better than expected is in the acting categories. The fellow Warner Bros. Pictures release won both Best Ensemble and Best Actor"

The awards columnist emphasizes avoiding distracting internet debates and instead focusing on concrete Oscar voting data. With the ceremony scheduled for mid-March, predictions should rely on established patterns from groups with Academy overlap. 'One Battle After Another' has dominated major bellwethers in Best Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, and Editing, winning at BAFTAs and guild awards. Meanwhile, 'Sinners' initially showed promise after breaking Oscar nomination records but underperformed in craft categories. However, the Warner Bros. release has unexpectedly excelled in acting categories, winning Best Ensemble and Best Actor at key voting bodies. This year lacks a single dominant contender, creating a more competitive and unpredictable race.

Read at IndieWire