Did the Guilds or the Globes Provide the Best Insight for What Will Be Nominated for Oscars?

"There is way too much ground to cover in terms of how the awards race has already changed since the start of 2026, but the long and short of the conversation around the week before Oscar nominations voting in particular is that the major guild awards - PGA, DGA, and the Actor Awards (SAG) - mostly overlooked the international titles and stars that have heavily feature in the current Best Picture race."

"As of now, the short math would be that the five films that made the cut for both the Actor Awards and the DGA Awards (that's "Frankenstein," "Hamnet," "Marty Supreme," "One Battle After Another," and "Sinners") are the Best Picture frontrunners. Best International Feature contenders "Sentimental Value" and "The Secret Agent" both got their moment to shine at the Golden Globes, so those two feel secure as the resident Best Picture nominees not in English this year."

""Bugonia" showing up on both the AFI Awards list and the PGA Awards list just about makes its Best Picture nomination odds undeniable, especially given the Oscars track record for Yorgos Lanthimos/Emma Stone collaborations. "Train Dreams" also stands tall, making both those lists as well, and being the often well-nominated Netflix's other big play. And then we land on the question of which international blockbuster will it be: "Avatar: Fire and Ash" or "F1"?"

Major guild awards (PGA, DGA, SAG) largely overlooked international titles and stars that have been prominent in the Best Picture conversation. The Golden Globes recognized several of those international contenders shortly before Oscar nominations voting. Five films that landed on both the Actor Awards and DGA lists — Frankenstein, Hamnet, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, and Sinners — emerge as Best Picture frontrunners. Best International Feature contenders Sentimental Value and The Secret Agent gained Golden Globe attention and appear likely to be the non-English Best Picture nominees. Bugonia and Train Dreams earned AFI and PGA recognition, strengthening their Oscar prospects. A decision remains between Avatar: Fire and Ash and F1 as the potential international blockbuster nominee.

Read at IndieWire