Tariffs, Gold Hikes and Export Woes: 2025 in Watches

"In the second Vogue Business Watch Index, signs of a slowdown are emerging across the industry. 2024's mixed financial performance saw estimated growth at Rolex, Cartier and Patek Philippe, alongside declines at most other brands. But growth halted in 2025. According to the Federation of the Swiss Watch Industry, global Swiss watch exports fell 0.1% in the first half of the year, led by declines across Asia-Pacific and offset by growth in the US."

"Despite this slowdown, the 20 brands ranked in the Vogue Business Watch Index have seen little movement. The top three players - Cartier, Omega and Rolex - held their positions, while Tag Heuer broke into the top five, replacing Chopard. The biggest climbers were Patek Philippe (up five places to eighth) and Audemars Piguet (up five places to 12th). Meanwhile, Chopard, Jaeger-LeCoultre, Hublot and Breitling each slipped two positions."

"Interestingly, market caution is yet to dampen consumer sentiment. Average purchase intent has risen 2% over the past year, driven largely by Audemars Piguet, Cartier and Zenith. Perceptions of brand heritage and design have increased alongside, suggesting that it's the perception of value driving demand rather than cost itself. While some aspirational shoppers may be priced out, affluent buyers are proving more resilient, with 19% of watch consumers saying they would trade up for more expensive products in the case of price rises."

Signs of slowdown emerged in early 2025 after mixed 2024 performance, with Rolex, Cartier and Patek Philippe showing estimated growth while most brands declined. Global Swiss watch exports fell 0.1% in H1, driven by Asia-Pacific declines and offset by US growth that may reverse as new tariffs take effect. After 39% tariffs, August exports to the US dropped by a fifth, threatening brands that invested heavily in the region. The top-ranked brands remained largely unchanged, with Cartier, Omega and Rolex holding positions and several brands moving a few places. Average purchase intent rose 2%, driven by luxury names, while 19% would trade up and 22% trade down, reflecting diverse consumer behavior and high household incomes among buyers.

Read at Vogue