US Officials Warn Ukraine Cease-Fire Could Heighten Russian Threat To Baltics

"Christopher Smith, deputy assistant secretary of state for European and Eurasian affairs, on May 14 told US lawmakers that while Russia currently has "about 90 percent of its combat power" committed to Ukraine, Moscow would eventually seek to "rebalance its forces and look for opportunities to project power and also create dilemmas for NATO.""

""This is particularly acute in the Baltic region," Smith told a House Foreign Affairs subcommittee hearing focused on security threats facing Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania."

"Republican Representative Keith Self of Texas, who chairs the Europe subcommittee, said Russia was already rebuilding its military while continuing to wage war in Ukraine. "When this war is over, there is a real risk that Russia may position its battle-hardened troops on the borders of the Baltic republics," Self said. "History suggests the cessation of the conflict in Ukraine will not reduce the Russian threat. It may instead simply redirect it.""

"Smith said the threat was already visible through Russian cyberattacks, sabotage operations, and hybrid tactics directed at the Baltic region. "We should expect Russia to rebalance its forces," he said, adding that Moscow was already using "hybrid operations against the Baltic states" to pressure NATO allies."

A senior US State Department official warned that Russia will likely reposition forces toward NATO’s eastern flank after the war in Ukraine ends. Russia currently has most combat power committed to Ukraine, but it is expected to rebalance and seek opportunities to project power and create dilemmas for NATO. The Baltic region is described as a particularly acute area of concern. US lawmakers said Russia is already rebuilding its military while continuing the war, and that the threat may be redirected rather than reduced after a cease-fire. The threat is already visible through cyberattacks, sabotage, and hybrid tactics aimed at Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania, with expectations of intensified pressure on NATO allies.

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