The EU's deeds as much as Putin's words will ensure the war in Ukraine continues | Rajan Menon

"Vladimir Putin's marathon press conference on 19 December, an annual year-end event, offered no evidence that Russia may abandon the goals the president set for his special military operation against Ukraine in February 2022: conquering Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson. True to form, Putin seemed unperturbed that nearly four years into the war his army had managed to fully occupy only Luhansk, despite having already taken control of more than a third of that region, as well as Donetsk, by 2015."

"Russia's inflexibility clashes with Donald Trump's desperate efforts to achieve a political settlement by Christmas. To meet his self-imposed deadline, Trump even tried to pressure Volodymyr Zelenskyy into surrendering the parts of Donetsk that Ukraine still holds. Though Zelenskyy refused, he was willing to end Ukraine's years-long quest for Nato membership and adopt neutrality, in exchange for solid western security guarantees."

"But Putin's 2022 war stems from something deeper, because there's no evidence that Ukraine was any closer to formal membership in the alliance on the eve of Russia's 2022 invasion than it had been in 2008, when, at its Bucharest summit, Nato declared that Ukraine would join its ranks at some future, but unspecified, date. Just as they had been in 2008, Nato countries have been divided on Ukraine candidacy, indeed even more so."

Putin reaffirmed aims to conquer Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson and showed no sign of abandoning those objectives. Nearly four years into the war, Russian forces fully occupy only Luhansk, while Donetsk had been partly controlled earlier. The State Duma legally incorporated the four Ukrainian regions into Russia, and senior diplomats reiterated territorial claims. Trump attempted to pressure Zelenskyy to cede parts of Donetsk and sought a political settlement by Christmas. Zelenskyy refused to surrender territory but offered to forgo NATO membership and adopt neutrality for firm Western security guarantees. NATO remains divided on Ukraine's candidacy and requires unanimity for new members.

Read at www.theguardian.com