The biggest threat facing Europe is not a Trump invasion. It's his global political revolution | Mark Leonard

"European governments are terrified of Donald Trump's threats on trade, Greenland and the future of Nato. But the biggest threat is not that Trump invades an ally or leaves Europe at the mercy of Russia. It is that his ideological movement could transform Europe from the inside. A year after Trump's return to the White House, his second American revolution is radiating outward into Europe."

"The Epstein files reveal how this began clumsily in 2018 with Steve Bannon; but it has become a much more sophisticated partnership with the second coming of Trump and the rise to power of JD Vance. The US National Security Strategy published by the White House in November called for strengthening the growing influence of patriotic European parties such as Reform UK, Alternative fur Deutschland (AfD), Marine Le Pen's Rassemblement National (RN), Fidesz in Hungary and Vox in Spain."

"As with the communist movements of the cold war, these nationalist, populist and in some cases far-right parties are best understood not as isolated national phenomena but as expressions of a shared intellectual project a movement that is, to varying degrees, now being reinforced by a foreign power. The movement is often portrayed as backward-looking or reactionary, intent on restoring an imagined past. In reality, its strength lies in being radically contemporary finely tuned to the political, social and intellectual conditions of the 21st century."

European governments face threats from Donald Trump's trade and NATO positions, but the larger danger is an ideological movement exporting a hyper-modern nationalist populism across Europe. The movement grew from early 2018 contacts involving Steve Bannon and has become more sophisticated with renewed Trump influence and figures like JD Vance. The US National Security Strategy called for strengthening patriotic European parties including Reform UK, AfD, Rassemblement National, Fidesz and Vox. These parties function as a transnational intellectual project rather than isolated national phenomena. The movement positions itself as contemporary, diagnosing liberal democracy's failings and proposing a pathway to political power.

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