Portugal election: Ruling AD ahead but short of majority DW 05/18/2025
Briefly

Portugal's ruling Democratic Alliance (AD) is projected to win the most votes in the upcoming election, but exit polls indicate they will not secure the outright majority needed for governance. The AD, led by acting prime minister Luis Montenegro, is expected to achieve between 29%-34% of the vote. The Socialist party is forecasted to get 19.4%-26%, while the far-right Chega is close behind. Montenegro has ruled out a coalition with Chega, which may hinder efforts to stabilize the government amidst ongoing political turmoil following the collapse of the previous minority government.
Portugal is experiencing significant political turmoil as the ruling Democratic Alliance is forecasted to win most votes, yet remains short of an outright majority.
Three exit polls suggest the Democratic Alliance will secure 29% to 34% of votes, a range that brings uncertainties about forming a stable government.
The AD is likely to fall short of the 42% needed for an outright majority, which could lead to further instability in Portuguese politics.
Luis Montenegro’s refusal to form alliances with the far-right Chega party could complicate the path to a stable governing coalition for the AD.
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